Periods of major international upheaval and turmoil are usually accompanied with a surge in Irredentist conflicts. As the world grapples with a pandemic unprecedented in recent times, majority of Nation States have been caught off guard and ill prepared to mitigate the disastrous consequences of the virus. Economies throughout the world have been hard hit and the grave  cataclysms are far too many to enumerate. In such a volatile world order, an emboldened aspiring global superpower in the Asia Pacific has sought to pursue it’s Irredentist claims with rejuvenated vigor. After the world heaved a sigh of relief as two nuclear power armed countries agreed to de-escalate tensions after a violent face off in the Galwan valley, Indian diplomats were faced with a new challenge.China seems in no mood to bury the hatchet and laid new claims on Eastern Bhutanese territory. This came as a shock, since the territory claimed is not contiguous with China and has never been claimed by the Chinese as their own as of now. However, the Chinese are notorious for such nefarious tactics. It is evident that this is an attempt to harass and bully Bhutan since it enjoys impeccable relations with India while sending a message to New Delhi. This can even be viewed as an attempt to lure Bhutan- a country it has no diplomatic relations with to its side. Even the passing of the New Security law in Honk Kong served the purpose of sending a strong message to the Great Britain for questioning China’s handling of the pandemic. In the grand scheme of things, such a claim should come as no surprise coming from a country that has territorial disputes 2,000 miles away from its borders.

Hence, to decipher and better comprehend the power dynamics in Asia Pacific it becomes pertinent to understand what Irredentism is.

The dictionary defines irredentism as a political principle or policy directed towards the incorporation of irredenta (A territory historically or ethnically related to one political unit but under the political control of another) 

Role of Deng Era in Enmeshing Irredentism in Chinese Populace

The dragons have  strived to make Irredentism an inextricable part of their domestic discourse for the better part of the past three decades. Dissemination of a political ideology is not an overnight process. The Deng Era (1978-1996) is of extreme pertinence in this context in the  Chinese history for it ushered a domestic economic revolution.  An overwhelming majority of people were lifted out of excruciating poverty which inadvertently fostered an overall societal change. 

Genesis of Irredentism in a Populace 

Being a complex phenomenon, multiple reasons have been put forth for the existence of Irredentism.

1. Structural Explanations

The International and regional context operative at the time are instrumental  in determining the success of the designs of the Irredentist state. 

 Having been able to suppress the virus quicker than the rest of the world owing to a draconian lockdown, of the sort that can seldom be imposed in vibrant democracies, China saw other countries too engrossed in combating the virus and stabilizing their internal affairs China decided to take a more aggressive stance in hopes of deterring much attention.

2. Realist Explanations

When the balance of power is not in favour of the Irredentist state vis-a-vis the target state or International community(States and International Organizations) in terms of military and economic prowess, the Irredentist state will be forced to relinquish its aspirations.

This relative balance of power also dictates how tolerant the international community will be to the nuisance caused by the irredentist state. If the state is a powerful actor and a key player on the international stage it will be met with mere rhetorical condemnations. But when the key state/s (existing superpower/s) adopt a more aggressive stance tangible retributive actions are likely to be meted out.

Hence, China’s growing aggression can also be seen in light of the America first policy of the POTUS. Withdrawl American troops from NATO states and Germany, retrenching from international organisations with the World Health Organization being latest, which China at the same time having obliged WHO by pledging an additional $30 million helps China strengthen itself on the International stage.

These actions of the key state, The USA has inadvertently given a morale boost to China while emasculating it’s own image, allowing it to adopt a more robust stance with it’s policies.

3. Rationalist Explanations 

This can further be demarcated into 

• Elite Conflict Theory: Leaders employ irredentism to counter challenge from other elites
• Diversionary Theory: Decision makers in the government initiate Irredentist conflicts to divert the attention of the population away from domestic problems.

Both these factors could be at work in the Chinese scenario. At the first glance, the elite Conflict theory seems to be unlikely given the gargantuan stature of Xi Jinping in the Chinese system. However, a closer analysis does suggest that the Elite Conflict Theory is equally plausible. Xi is answerable to the upper echelons of the Communist Party who are largely unsatisfied by his handling of the pandemic. It would not be an exaggeration to say that a decisive Prime Minister in a Parliamentary form of government enjoys greater discretion, albeit, not for a lifetime like Mr. Xi does!

Diversionary theory, according to limited understanding of the author, is ostensibly the domestic driving force behind China undertaking it’s Irredentist misadventures with a rejuvenated vigor. The high handedness of the Chinese officials in suppressing the dissemination of information regarding discovery of a novel strain of the virus and the tragic passing away of Dr. Li Wenliang who attempted to alert against the treacherous virus led to widespread protests across the Chinese mainland against the severe censure of the government officials. Mr. Li Wenliang was rightly extolled as a hero. Seen in conjunction with a dampened economy owing to Coronavirus, use of aggression by the government  would have proved to be the ember kindling a conflagration in form of a civil distress.

Irredentism here proves to be a handy tool. We are ourselves no alien to this concept, when the josh is high, rationale often takes a backseat and those who dare to evoke reason are promptly instructed to partake in a one way journey to Pakistan. 

4. Domestic Explanations 

These can be better construed upon further bifurcation into 

• Demographic causes

Ethnically homogeneous states are likelier to support Irredentist claims of the government. Contrast this with a diverse heterogeneous populace where some groups are likely to be unwilling to support a project that benefits a single ethnic group and in some cases has the potential to alter the ethnic balance in favour of one. An overwhelming majority of the population in China identifies as Han Chinese making the task of instilling irredentist tendencies in the populace easy.

• Government structure 

Democratic states are unlikely to have Irredentist conflicts owing to several factors like enhanced institutional restrain, greater protection for minorities and what has come to be known as Democratic Peace Theory which simply put, enumerates that Democratic states tend to resolve their disputes and differences amicably

5. Constructivism

Social construction is instrumental in determining the efficacy and ultimately the  success in Irredentist pursuits.

The pertinence of ethnicity in dissemination of irredentism has already been discussed An ethnic identity emphasizes upon fostering unity across political boundaries  to realize a physical union of the country

 A civic national identity is political in nature, usually tied to a preexisting state, and is therefore more easily limited to status quo boundaries. 

The second constructivist argument focuses on justification of Irredentist claims. This justification includes the arguments that assert the group’s right and obligation to unify the country and the proper means by which to achieve this goal. If this justification is somehow undermined, the legitimacy of the Country’s  claims can be annulled.

The Chinese have been flexing its muscles through ‘soft power’ (diplomatic focus), ‘hard power’ (a military presence) and ‘sharp power’ (offering financial remuneration to its surrogate states like Pakistan and North Korea). Since sovereign states have the capability and resources to engage  in total war, irridentist conflicts tend to be violent. It remains to be seen whether  China deems it plausible to engage in serious warfare, however the gravity of the situation cannot be underplayed. Australia seems to be the latest state to appreciate the gravity of the situation announcing a forty percent hike in its military budget over the course of the next decade. India too should realise that instances like Dokhlam and Galwan are not going to cease anytime soon and should hence devise a diplomatic and military strategy with this in their mind.