The world has witnessed for a while the slow but steady assent of China in the global pecking order owing to ambitious projects like the Belt and Road Initiative.
This rise of a secondary superpower in the world has especially perturbed The USA which is the only existing superpower. The Americans have repeatedly accused the Chinese of hacking sensitive information and partaking in other unethical trade practices. Using their diplomatic leverage to levy trade sanctions, China reciprocated by imposing sanctions on USA themselves, what subsequently ensued came to be termed as “trade wars”
The pandemic has given a new face to this rivalry. China’s handling in the aftermath of the breakout of the pandemic has drawn the ire of the entire world at large primarily for the delay in relaying vital information to the World Health Organization despite being privy to the gravity of the situation much earlier and dealing with the medical professionals who attempted to warn against the implications of the virus in an authoritarian way.
But no one has been a more vocal critic of these “lies, deception, cover-up” than the USA . President Trump with his trademark abrasiveness and blatant disregard for political correctness termed the pandemic as “Chinese virus” holding China accountable for the catastrophe inflicted upon the world.
China didn’t hold back either, maintaining that terming COVID-19 as Chinese virus is an act of racism, publishing a questionnaire in their national newspaper insinuating that USA is the culpable party for spread of the disease. There was also distribution of official videos through Chinese embassies throughout the world mocking the USA for not paying heed to the warnings of WHO and Chinese authorities.
The language of the exchanges between the two countries is rather strong, they’re not subtle digs it can thus be safely assumed that the pandemic has added fuel to fire and brought the relations between the two countries to a nadir. Thus ushering a new global order in the world of diplomacy, necessitating retrospection of foreign policies and external affairs of countries.
It is with this backdrop that Indian Prime Minister for the first time since assuming office in 2014 participated in meeting of the Non Aligned Movement (NAM), which has steadily depreciated in importance since the fall of Soviet Union which should come as no surprise since such an organization makes paltry sense in a unipolar world.
But being in vicinity of China such indifference to international politics seems ill afforded and India is well aware of this fact. Participation in NAM seems to be a mere fiction. Just like under Nehru, India had a perceivable bent towards the USSR since the western countries showed no inclination to assist India with her plans of establishing basic and heavy industries which were considered as a precursor to development, these relations only fostered into a stronger bond with passage of time which was only reversed once Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee assumed office and serious efforts were made to ameliorate ties with United States
But presently India’s participation in the NAM should be seen in conjunction with government’s call for self reliance which is not a mere rhetoric it is a well calibrated response to the growing aggression of China literally and metaphorically which has manifested itself in various ways during the past few months.
India’s relations with China have been in a downward spiral. Better infrastructure in border areas in the Indian side’s has led to increased encounters between the border forces of the two nations, which inadvertently leads to provocations, first fights and stone pelting between the two as was seen in Nathu La area of Sikkim. Due to the presence of strict protocols such situations have been deescalated with alacrity.
An ultimatum to vacate illegally occupied areas of Kashmir and Baltistan did not boded well with Pakistan’s all weather ally, China which has continuously strived to make it an international issue.
Nepal, the country India has enjoyed amicable relations and open borders with has also shown a pro China tilt in the recent years and claimed sovereignty over the areas of Kalapani and now Lipulake.
In wake of the coronavirus linked uncertainty, a dip in the market value of Indian companies led to a heavy influx of Chinese capital, to avoid a “takeover” of the firms by Chinese, India revised it’s FDI norms stating that “an entity of a country, which shares a land border with India or where beneficial owner of an investment into India is situated in or is a citizen of any such country, can invest only under the government route”
Chinese government was quick to take note and stated that this move was not in line with India’s WTO and other multilateral commitments.
Despite China’s vocal opposition, Prime Minister’s explicit mention of “self reliance” in just a month’s time hence is more than a rhetoric it is a well calibrated response to the growing nuisance that China is posing. The large Indian population provides an ideal market to Chinese goods which trade quality for a lower price, a strategy which resonates with India’s lower middle and middle class. Hence we see China dominating Indian markets in fields such as mobile devices, household electronics, etc. After the virus had ravaged the Chinese economy, seeking to reopen it’s economy which largely rests on export of goods. But China’s goodwill as a manufacturer has been hard hit by export of sub par quality of goods even during the pandemic. France was supplied with defective personal protective equipment while the test kits in Spain malfunctioned. Thus Indian government’s call for self reliance have made the road to recovery for China an uphill task since a sizable market is going out of it’s grasp.
There are also apprehensions that the current call for self reliance could mean a return of the protectionist market practices as were seen pre liberalisation era.
However the recent trends of Indian states easing their labour laws seems to suggest otherwise. Even as early as Match 4, government moved to make 72 amendments to Companies Act like reducing quantum of punishments amongst other things to make it “more humane” seems to be an attempt to woo corporations trying to relocate out of China amidst growing concern on the growing tendency of China to “weaponize” trade using “debt diplomacy”
The growing Chinese presence in the South China sea has concerned another powerful Asian nation, Japan The Japanese have considered moving away from their pacifist constitution in lieu of the growing Chinese presence. India and Japan have thus evolved to become natural allies. Capitalizing on these cordial relations Indian government pitched for Japanese companies as they move out of China. India prepared a paper titled “Why India is the best place for Japanese investment is the post COVID-19 world” which has been put up on the Twitter handle and Facebook page of Indian embassy in Japan.
Although India can greatly benefit from companies seeking to diversify their supply chain, countries like Vietnam and Thailand pose tough competition. Steps like decriminalizing Companies Act and relaxing labour laws will go a long way in ameliorating the ease of doing business and subsequently attracting much needed investment, but more work remains to be done.
The Trans-Atlantic powers have been constantly dwindling in powers and are unable to dictate the world order, the world leader America which has always been quick to lead from the front has showed no intent to guide the world threatening to stop the monetary assistance to the World Health Organization. , and has even failed to formulate an effective policy to manage the ordeal.
With United States unwilling and Trans Atlantic powers incapable of shaping the world order and the dwindling confidence of countries in China, the time is apposite for India to make strides on the International pecking order by diplomacy and judicious economic planning. Although a complete change in paradigm is a glacial process and takes time and impeccable planning, India is on the right path and should continue on it.